Interest Rate Update April 1, 2026

Treasury yields are lower today. According to Fortune, this is due to a shift from inflation fears to growth concerns:"Bond yields are falling even as oil tops $102, showing that Wall Street fears recession more than inflation"

A comparison of 1-month Term SOFR versus 30-day Average SOFR is shown below. As a reminder, 30-day Average SOFR is commonly used by the agencies and is backward-looking while 1-month Term SOFR is used by most bridge lenders and is forward-looking based on futures contracts

The next Fed decision is in 30 days. The chart below skips ahead to the last Fed meeting of the year. You'll see that the market is projecting a 76% probability that the Fed leaves rates unchanged through the end of 2026. The probability of a rate increase reached 22% last week, but that's now down to less than 4%.

The 1-month Term SOFR forward curve is shown below. The market projection for SOFR at the end of 2026 has increased 70 bps over the past month.

Agency Pricing Grid